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The situation in Lebanon is reaching a breaking point. After years of simmering tension and a fragile ceasefire, Israel has launched strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure following repeated violations south of the Litani River. Meanwhile, a U.S. envoy is in Beirut pressuring Lebanon to finally fulfill its decades-old commitment to disarm Hezbollah — a promise Lebanon made back on September 5th, yet has never enforced. With Hezbollah refusing to give up its weapons and openly claiming its right to “resistance,” the Lebanese government stands trapped between international pressure, Israeli security demands, and the threat of internal collapse.

To understand this growing crisis, we break down the complex tribal, political, and sectarian fault lines inside Lebanon — from its artificial colonial-era borders to its power-sharing system built on outdated demographics. We trace the rise of Shiite militias like Amal and Hezbollah, the legacy of the Taif Agreement, and why Hezbollah remains the only armed faction today. As Israel enforces a zero-tolerance policy and the Lebanese president faces impossible choices, the country stands on the brink of another major confrontation. This is the decisive moment for Lebanon’s future — and the consequences will reshape the region.

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