A new academic study has found that the percentage of women and children killed in Gaza during Israel’s war against Hamas is significantly lower than claimed by the terrorist organization’s propaganda arm, raising serious questions about the veracity of casualty figures that have been widely cited in international media.
Key Findings
According to research by professors Lewi Stone and Gregory Rose published by the Henry Jackson Society think tank, Hamas’s Government Media Office (GMO) has consistently claimed that approximately 70 percent of Gaza war fatalities were women and children. However, analysis of data from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) itself reveals the actual figure to be just under 51 percent.
“[Hamas] clearly engaged in disinformation to prosecute the Hamas wartime narrative, the central theme of which is that the IDF deliberately commits war atrocities,” write Stone, a professor of Mathematical Epidemiology at RMIT University in Melbourne, and Rose, an honorary professor of law at the University of Wollongong.
The Data Analysis
The researchers examined the Ministry of Health’s March 2025 list of 50,021 war fatalities and found:
- 9,790 were adult women (18 years and older)
- 15,613 were children (boys and girls under 18)
- This combined total of 25,403 women and children represents 50.8% of all reported fatalities
When examining specific military operations, the discrepancy becomes even more pronounced. The study provides a detailed breakdown of casualties during the IDF’s operation in Khan Younis from January to May 2024:
- Total identified fatalities: 2,154
- Adult men over 18: 1,411 (65.5% of total)
- Women and children combined: 34.5% of total
- Female children: 188 (9%)
- Male children: 278 (13%)
Military-Age Males Overrepresented
The researchers noted that males in age brackets most typical for combatants (15-40 years) were significantly overrepresented in the fatality counts. They also suggested that the higher rate of male child fatalities compared to female children indicated that “a substantial portion” of boys under 18 were likely engaged in combat roles.
Stone and Rose highlighted a telling trend in the fatality patterns over time. While women and children represented 62% of deaths in October 2023 at the war’s beginning, that figure dropped to around 45% by January 2024 and remained at similar levels thereafter. The researchers interpreted this as “a strong signal that IDF ground troops were attempting to target combatants despite the difficulties of conditions of urban warfare.”
Data Manipulation Concerns
The study raises multiple concerns about how casualty data has been collected and presented by Hamas authorities:
- The Ministry of Health lists don’t differentiate between combatants and civilians
- Known Hamas combatant fatalities are often excluded from the total count
- Deaths from failed attacks by Gaza-based terror groups (like the Al-Ahli Hospital incident) are attributed to Israel
- An estimated 9,000 natural deaths that would have occurred since October 2023 have been included in the war fatality count
- More than 6,300 names have been removed from casualty lists over time without explanation.
These methodological issues led the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in May 2024 to dramatically reduce its estimates of women and children killed, cutting the number of women from more than 9,500 to 4,959 and the number of children from more than 14,500 to 7,797.
Statistical Context
The researchers emphasize that women and children comprise approximately 75% of Gaza’s general population, yet represent less than 51% of the total reported war casualties. This disproportionately low representation, they argue, suggests systematic efforts by the IDF to minimize civilian casualties rather than indiscriminately target them.
Admissions From Hamas Officials
Adding further credibility to the study’s conclusions, Zaher al-Wahidi, head of the MoH statistics team, admitted in April that many names on the latest casualty list had died of natural or indirect causes, or may not be dead at all. Al-Wahidi suggested some Gazans were submitting false claims to try and secure financial assistance.
Acknowledgment of Tragedy
The researchers emphasized that their findings do not diminish the tragedy of civilian deaths: “We do not doubt that a large number of civilians have tragically lost their lives in this conflict, and it is deeply concerning to us.” However, they assert that Hamas’s declarations of “genocide” are “inconsistent with its own datasets.”
Broader Implications
The study concludes that when “Hamas’s narratives were accepted and amplified without any forensic critique, to be broadcast enthusiastically by agenda-driven activists, much of the world public was deceived.”
The researchers note that while the exact civilian-to-combatant ratio remains unknown, the available data—including Hamas’s own figures—appears more consistent with Israeli claims about its conduct and casualty estimates than with the narrative of indiscriminate targeting of civilians.
As of January, Israel had claimed to have killed approximately 20,000 members of Hamas and other terrorist groups in its operations following the October 7, 2023, attacks.
Corroborating Report
A report by Oved Lobel and published in the Australian Jewish News stated that the statistics used by most media and politicians “has repeatedly been demonstrated to be error-ridden and unreliable at best – and intentionally manipulated or even outright fabricated at worst.”
“Multiple analysts including Salo Aizenberg, Gabriel Epstein, Tom Simpson, Lewi Stone, Greg Rose and Andrew Fox have independently identified statistical anomalies and impossibilities in the data since at least January 2024,” Lobel wrote. “They have all concluded that both the topline casualty numbers as well as the gender and age breakdowns are unreliable. In addition, the claims made by the GMO and the MoH contradict each other.”
“These analyses caused the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in May 2024 to quietly halve the number of women and children it claimed had been killed, from more than 9500 to 4959 and from more than 14,500 to 7797, respectively.”
He attributed this at least in part to claims that the Gaza Ministry of Health list was being split between “identified” and “unidentified” casualties, with the latter category responsible for most of the statistical irregularities.
“However, already last year it was clear that even ‘identified’ casualty lists were plagued by errors and duplicate entries,” he wrote. “The “identified” category is now being further called into question, with Aizenberg noting on April 1 that at least 3400 ‘identified’ casualties, including 1080 children, were removed from the MoH’s most recent list, released in March.
“Several days later, the head of the MoH statistics team, Zaher al-Wahidi, admitted that many names on the latest casualty list had died of natural or indirect causes or may not be dead. Al-Wahidi suggested that Gazans were submitting false claims to try and win financial assistance. Consequently, hundreds more names have been removed pending investigation.”
His conclusion was decisive:
“The exact civilian-to-combatant ratio, as well as the total number of direct deaths from the war, is simply unknown right now, and may remain so indefinitely.”
“That said, we can be reasonably confident that the Israeli narrative regarding its casualty estimates and general conduct, particularly the fact that it doesn’t indiscriminately target civilians, is consistent with the available data – including from Hamas.”
