On October 7, 2023, Hamas attacked Israel from the south while Hezbollah attacked Israel from the north. Even Iran attacked Israel from over 1,000 kilometers away. And the Houthis have sent drones over 2,000 kilometers to attack Israel. But Syria, historically a sworn enemy bordering Israel on the northeast and an ally of Iran and Hezbollah, has remained aloof, refusing to enter the fray. The reason for this became clear last week when rebels took over the country and Syria’s despotic and brutal leader, Bashar al-Assad, fled to Russia. 

While the development ended Syria’s civil war that has left over 580,000 dead, it left everyone wondering who will take over the country and what it will mean for Israel. While Syria has been openly hostile to Israel since before it declared statehood in 1948, some wondered whether the Middle East axiom claiming “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” might apply to the rebel groups taking control of Israel’s northeastern border. 

Concern rose after a video was posted to Twitter showing the rebels vowing to march on Jerusalem.

“This is the land of Islam, this is Damascus, the Muslim stronghold. From here to Jerusalem. We’re coming for Jerusalem. Patience, people of Gaza, patience,” shouted an Islamist rebel spokesman surrounded by a group of gunmen who responded with cries of “Allahu akbar! (“Allah is greater” in Arabic).

It is unclear which group is seen in the video. Israel365 News turned to Dr. Mordechai Kedar to explain the situation in Syria. Dr. Kedar is a senior lecturer at Bar-Ilan University and the vice president of NEWSRAEL. He served for 25 years in the IDF military intelligence, specializing in Syria, Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups, and Israeli Arabs. He is an expert on the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups. He is fluent in Hebrew, Arabic, and English and has debated Muslims on Arab media in Arabic. 

“Assad was not religious and was not even a Muslim. The opposition, Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is strongly Sunni,” Dr. Kedar explained. “They don’t care so much about Jerusalem, per se. Sunni sanctifies Jerusalem because it is a competition to Mecca. Within Islam, Jerusalem is a struggle for dominance between Sunni and Shia. The regime oppressed the Sunni rebels in Syria because even though Assad was not Muslim, he was supported by Shia Iran.”

Dr. Kedar cautioned against trying to simplify the situation by thinking of it in political terms.

“You have to stop thinking like an American; in the Middle East, everything is connected to religion,” Dr. Kedar said. “The Muslims never heard about separating church and state. For these rebels in Syria, they are like al Qaeda and ISIS, who want to cleanse the whole world of any other religion. They don’t care about Jerusalem right now. They just want to get rid of the state of Israel because we are a powerful Jewish state that challenges their dominance. But they are saying it in a religious way.”

“They are against anything that is not Muslim and, more specifically, anything that is not Sunni. The name Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham means the liberation of all of Western Asia. This includes Lebanon, Israel, and the western part of Jordan. They also intend to liberate ‘Palestine’ from the Jewish ‘Occupation.’”

Dr. Kedar emphasized that the removal of Assad from Syria was good for Israel. 

“This is another big step in breaking the backbone of Iranian octopus. We are chopping its tentacles one at a time. Hamas and Hezbollah are effectively defeated. All that remains is the Iraqi and Yemenite tentacles. We will also have to deal with the head of the octopus in Iran.’

“In the short term, what Israel is doing now is dealing with a tactical threat by getting rid of what remains of Assad’s airforce and weapons. And, of course, the chemical weapons. If the Islamists in Syria decide to come against Jerusalem, as they threatened, it will be with old AK-47s and RPGs but not with anything that is a real threat to Israel.”

“The strategic threat is still Iran with its ICBMs and nuclear weapons, which they are pushing to produce. If I had to choose between the Jihadi threat posed by the rebels or the strategic threat posed by Assad and Iran, there is no question that we prefer the Jihad rebels with the AKs.”

Israel365 News asked about the fate of the Christians and other ethnic minorities in Syria. Dr. Kedar is a recognized expert, so it was deeply concerning that he admitted that the future of Syria is unclear in this regard.

“Assad persecuted the Islamists,” Dr. Kedar said. “So under Assad, it might have been said that the Christians, Druze, Alawi, and Kurds felt secure, or, at least, no more persecuted than anyone else. Now that the Jihadists are in power, this is a big question. Will the Jihads treat them as ISIS did, or will the rebels act like a normal government that tries to unite its people? I really have no idea what direction the new rulers will take.”

“It could be that the leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julan, understands that he needs an inclusive and pluralistic agenda to succeed. He seems to be saying the right things, but knowing if this is serious is impossible. Even if he wants to be inclusive, this means including the groups that do not want to be inclusive, dogmatic groups. He will have to figure out how to deal with them. Either he will have to eliminate them, or he will have to join them.”

“The problem is that foreign policy must be built on solid ground, and there is no solid ground here. Therefore, Israel must take the military actions it is taking now. In case Syria takes the wrong direction, Israel has to know that it will not be facing tanks and fighter planes or, God forbid, chemical weapons.”