A majority of Americans continue to back Israel over Hamas, but a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll finds that voters under 25 favor Hamas by a wide margin, and most Democrats say Israel should not be formally defined as a Jewish state.
Asked to choose between supporting “more Israel or more Hamas,” 73% of registered voters chose Israel and 27% chose Hamas, essentially unchanged from May, when Israel stood at 72%. The overall number masks a sharp generational split. Among voters 18 to 24, 60% chose Hamas and just 40% chose Israel, the only age group in the survey to favor the US-designated terrorist organization. Support for Israel then rose steadily with age: 62% among voters 25 to 34, 67% among those 35 to 44, 77% among those 45 to 54, 80% among those 55 to 64, and 88% among voters 65 and older.
A partisan gap also emerged, though every party favored Israel overall. Republicans chose Israel over Hamas by 85% to 15%, independents by 69% to 31%, and Democrats by a narrower 63% to 37%.
Choosing Hamas in the forced comparison did not translate into a favorable view of the group on its own. Just 11% of respondents said they viewed Hamas favorably, against 59% unfavorable, for a net rating of minus 48. Israel split evenly, with 37% favorable and 37% unfavorable. The Palestinian Authority scored a net minus 28, with 17% favorable and 45% unfavorable.
A Widening Gap Over What Israel Should Be
The poll also found broad, though not universal, support for Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish homeland, alongside far less agreement that the country should be formally defined as a Jewish state. Seventy-six percent of respondents said Israel had a right to exist as the homeland of the Jewish people, including 52% of voters 18 to 24, rising to 92% among those 65 and older.
The picture shifted when voters were asked about Israel’s political character rather than its right to exist. Fifty-six percent said Israel should be defined as a Jewish state, while 44% said it should instead be “a state without an official religious or ethnic identity.” Republicans backed the Jewish-state definition 70% to 30%, while Democrats narrowly rejected it, 52% to 48% in favor of no official religious or ethnic identity. Independents were nearly split, 51% to 49% against the Jewish-state definition. The generational divide was sharpest here as well: 62% of voters 18 to 24 opposed defining Israel as a Jewish state, compared with 38% in favor, while voters 65 and older backed the definition 63% to 37%. The gap between the two questions suggests a meaningful number of respondents believe Israel has a right to exist as the Jewish homeland while still opposing making that identity official.
Netanyahu’s Standing Slips
The poll found Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s favorability among American voters has declined since May. Twenty-four percent now view him favorably and 39% unfavorably, a net rating of minus 15, down from minus 9 in May, when he stood at 26% favorable and 35% unfavorable.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani improved slightly but remained underwater, at 27% favorable and 35% unfavorable for a net minus 7, up from minus 10 in May; his favorable rating grew faster than his unfavorable rating, rather than his negatives shrinking. Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson posted a net rating identical to Netanyahu’s, minus 15, with 23% favorable and 38% unfavorable, compared with minus 12 in May.
Where Voters Agree
Despite the divide over Israel itself, the poll found broader consensus on some related regional questions. Seventy-seven percent of respondents said terrorist groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah, operate along Israel’s borders, ranging from 64% among voters 18 to 24 to 90% among those 65 and older. Voters were split on those groups’ aims: a 43% plurality said they were trying to destroy Israel, 33% said they were fighting for greater rights in their territory, and 23% said they were seeking to expand their territory. Younger voters were considerably more likely to take the sympathetic view: among those 18 to 24, 43% said the groups were fighting “just to have more rights,” compared with 30% who said they sought Israel’s destruction; among voters 65 and older, 57% said the groups sought Israel’s destruction.
Seventy percent of all respondents said Hezbollah should be required to disarm as part of any long-term peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon, a position backed by 79% of Republicans, 67% of independents and 65% of Democrats.
The Harvard CAPS/Harris survey was conducted online July 11 and 12 among 1,776 registered US voters, weighted to reflect the electorate’s demographic and political composition, with a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The margin for the smaller 18-to-24 subgroup would be considerably larger and was not provided.
