Israel’s population crossed 10 million for the first time in 2025, reaching 10,178,000 by year’s end, according to data released by the Central Bureau of Statistics. Yet behind this milestone lies a troubling reality: Israel recorded its second consecutive year of net population loss through migration, with nearly 70,000 citizens leaving the country while only 44,000 arrived through immigration, return migration, and family reunification combined.
The 1.1% growth rate matches 2024’s figure and represents one of the slowest expansion rates in Israel’s history. The Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel calculated an even lower rate of 0.9%, marking the first time annual growth has fallen below 1% since the state’s establishment in 1948. The discrepancy between the two assessments remains unexplained, though both institutions agree on the direction: Israel’s demographic momentum is slowing.
Throughout most of the nation’s history, Jewish immigration consistently outpaced emigration, fulfilling the Zionist vision of kibbutz galuyot (ingathering of the exiles). Yet 2025 marked a departure. The migration balance turned negative by 20,000, with 69,300 Israelis leaving and only 19,000 returning from extended stays abroad. Only 24,600 new immigrants arrived, down from 32,000 the previous year, with the decline driven primarily by fewer Russian immigrants following the initial surge after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Family reunification cases dropped by more than half, from 5,500 to 2,500.
“This is a very unusual figure,” said Prof. Alex Weinreb, the Taub Center’s director of research and demography expert. “We are at the start of a new era of demographic development in Israel. The period of record natural increase has passed, and that is alongside a less stable and even negative migration balance, two factors that are a clear break from past patterns.”
Israel’s natural increase remains strong, with 182,000 births recorded against 50,000 deaths, yielding a net gain of 132,000 through natural growth alone. But even this pillar shows signs of erosion. Fertility rates are declining across all population sectors, including Druze, Muslim Arab, Christian Arab, and Christian non-Arab women. While the absolute number of births has held steady, the rate per woman continues to fall as the population base expands.
The Taub report identified three converging factors: rising deaths as more Israelis reach their 70s and 80s, negative migration figures, and declining fertility. Historically, natural increase accounted for 80% of Israel’s population growth. That balance has shifted dramatically, with migration now playing a disproportionate role, though it is currently negative.
Demographics indicate who leaves. Most emigrants are foreign-born Israelis, and one-third are not considered Jewish under Jewish law. The emigration rate among non-Jews is 8.1 times higher than among Jewish Israelis. Yet Jewish emigration has also increased, a pattern attributed to Israel’s security situation since the October 7, 2023 massacre and the subsequent war against Hamas terrorists in Gaza, combined with political tensions surrounding judicial reform debates.
Emigrants are counted only after spending most of a year outside Israel, meaning many in the 2025 statistics actually departed in 2024. The phenomenon mirrors only three other periods in the past century when migration turned negative: certain years in the 1950s and 1980s, and 2024.
Israel’s current population breaks down to 7,771,000 Jews and others (76.3%), 2,147,000 Arabs (21.1%), and 260,000 non-citizen foreign residents (2.6%). Of the 182,000 births, 76% were to Jewish mothers and 24% to Arab mothers. Life expectancy has dipped slightly, with men averaging 81.3 years (down from 81.7 in 2023) and women 85.4 years (down from 85.7), though these figures exclude war casualties.
The only other times since 1948 when annual population growth fell below 1.5% were 1981 (1.42%) and 1983 (1.35%). Israel now stands at a demographic crossroads. The nation that absorbed millions of immigrants and maintained population growth rates far exceeding Western countries faces a new reality: stable birth numbers, an aging population, rising deaths, and negative migration.
The biblical promise of return to the land remains unchanged. What has changed is Israel’s ability to attract and retain its citizens during a period of sustained conflict and political upheaval. For a nation built on the idea of Jews coming home, the reversal of migration flows represents more than statistics—it challenges the core narrative of Zionist fulfillment. Israel’s demographic future depends on whether this trend marks a temporary aberration or signals a fundamental shift in how Israelis view their relationship to the land their ancestors prayed to reach for two thousand years.
