Space agencies are developing a plan to use nuclear weapons against an asteroid that poses a threat to the Moon, potentially creating dangerous debris clouds that could threaten Earth’s satellite infrastructure for years.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring 65 meters in diameter, currently has a 4% probability of impacting the Moon in December 2032. While the space rock poses minimal risk to Earth itself, a lunar collision could generate catastrophic debris exceeding 100 million kilograms that would endanger orbital satellite systems critical for communications, navigation, and scientific operations.
The asteroid made a close approach to Earth on December 25, 2024—just two days before its discovery—passing at a distance of 515,000 miles. On December 22, 2032, it will make its closest approach to Earth at a distance of 270,000 kilometers. The Moon encounter is predicted that same day, with the asteroid passing approximately 11,000 kilometers from the lunar surface.
NASA researchers are advocating for a “kinetic disruption mission” utilizing dual 100-kiloton nuclear devices—each possessing five to eight times the explosive power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. The goal is to completely fragment the asteroid rather than merely deflecting it.
“Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical,” researchers documented, citing significant uncertainties about the asteroid’s mass, which could range anywhere from 72.7 million to 2 billion pounds. Traditional deflection methods, like those successfully demonstrated by NASA’s 2022 DART mission, are deemed insufficient for this scenario.
The mission architecture includes a backup system, with researchers explaining that “a second nuclear explosive device is onboard in case it is needed; otherwise, it can be safely disposed of by detonating it in deep space after the asteroid is successfully deflected by the first one.”
Mission development will require five to seven years, with critical launch windows spanning late 2029 through late 2031. This represents a significantly more complex undertaking than the DART mission, which successfully nudged asteroid Dimorphos off course through a simple spacecraft collision.
In order to safeguard the planet, NASA carried out its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission in which the spacecraft smashed into a 170-meter asteroid in the hopes of deflecting it into a different trajectory, steering it away from the Earth’s orbital path. After a ten-month journey, the NASA craft smashed into the asteroid on September 26, during the holiday of Rosh Hashanah.
The DART mission intentionally crashed a probe into the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos in 2022 to test planetary defense technology, a process that did not destroy the asteroid but rather permanently changed its orbit. The collision, which created a crater and ejected debris, successfully demonstrated that a spacecraft can be used to deflect an asteroid’s path.
The mission, managed by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and the Science Mission Directorate’s Planetary Science Division at NASA headquarters, was a proof-of-concept test to see if an asteroid’s trajectory could be altered, not to destroy it or divert an Earth-threatening asteroid. This was the first full-scale planetary defense mission of its kind, aiming to test if humanity could defend against a hazardous asteroid.
2024 YR4 is currently positioned beyond 379 million miles from Earth and will continue moving away from the Sun until November 2026. Its next close approach will occur on December 17, 2028, before the critical 2032 encounter.
If 2024 YR4 were to strike the Moon, scientists predict it would create a crater approximately 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) in diameter. The resulting debris would “accrete to the Earth on timescales of a few days” and expose satellites to meteorite bombardment across multiple years.
Due to the asteroid’s stony composition, if it were to strike Earth instead, it would more likely produce a meteor air burst than an impact crater on land or a tsunami in the ocean.
Scientists emphasize caution despite the dramatic nature of the proposed solution. “When considering the various mission options we describe herein, it is important to keep in mind that 2024 YR4’s lunar impact probability currently stands at about 4 percent,” researchers noted.
This mission represents humanity’s first serious consideration of nuclear intervention for planetary defense and could establish new protocols for future potentially hazardous asteroid encounters.
Astronomers consider a near-Earth object a threat if it will come within 4.6 million miles of the planet and is at least 460 feet in diameter. Larger objects – 0.6 miles (1 km) or more – could have global effects and even cause mass extinctions.
NASA is beginning to seriously consider the threat of a catastrophic impact as a planet-threatening possibility.NASA established the Near-Earth Object (NEO) program in 1998 to track asteroids that were on a trajectory that would bring them close to home and that measured 460 feet in diameter or larger. Since its inception, the NEO has identified almost one million asteroids, with 90 percent of them measuring larger than 3,200 feet across. To be qualified as having a close approach, the NEO must be within 121 million miles of the Sun and within 30 million miles of Earth’s orbit around the Sun.
NASA is currently tracking around 20,000 near-Earth asteroids. Any asteroid about 500 feet or larger with an orbit that brings it within 4.7 million miles of Earth is classified as a potentially hazardous asteroid, NASA officials have said. At the moment, scientists have identified more than 20,000 near-earth objects (NEO) and around 40 new ones are being discovered every week. Of the known NEOs, around 5,000 are classed as “potentially hazardous.” CNEOS estimated that a cataclysmic collision between an asteroid and the Earth that threatens the future of civilization occurs on average once per 100,000 years. But the threat of unseen dangers lurking directly overhead is far more common than previously thought. Over 17,000 near-Earth asteroids remain undetected in our solar neighborhood.
The appearance of a bright star is described in the Bible as a sign presaging the arrival of the Messiah, as explained by the renowned medieval scholar Maimonides, who described the prophecy of Balaam in the Bible as referring to astronomical phenomena presaging the Messiah.
What I see for them is not yet; what I behold will not be soon: A star rises from Yaakov, A scepter comes forth from Yisrael; It smashes the brow of Moab, The foundation of all children of Shet. Numbers 24:17
Jewish sources describe a star that will appear in the end of days, wreaking havoc but not destroying the world, which many refer to as Nibiru.
“Before the great and terrible day of Hashem comes,* I will set portents in the sky and on earth: Blood and fire and pillars of smoke;” Joel 3:3
The Zohar, the basis of Jewish esoteric learning, describes the Star of Jacob in great detail.
“After forty days, when the pillar rises from earth to heaven in the eyes of the whole world and the Messiah has appeared, a star will rise up on the east, blazing in all colors, and seven other stars will surround that star. And they will wage war on it.”
Yuval Ovadia, whose films on Nibiru have garnered hundreds of thousands of views, noted that asteroid sightings have been on the rise for the past ten years, but this year is on an entirely new scale.
“This is not simply a matter of better technology and telescopes,” Ovadia noted. “In fact, NASA and the major observatories have missed most of the asteroids that entered the atmosphere. And you can be sure that even more went entirely unnoticed, passing over uninhabited parts of the planet of the open seas.”
“Jewish sources say that this astrological phenomenon is a necessary part of the geula (redemption),” Ovadia said. He explained that if the star does not appear, then any claim that the Messiah has arrived will be rejected by Judaism. He pointed to an example: 400 years ago, Rabbi Yaakov Sasportes used the absence of a new star as an argument against Shabbetai Tzvi, a Jew who falsely claimed to be the Messiah.
“As Nibiru approaches, more asteroids will appear,” Ovadia said. “Nibiru is described in Jewish sources as a star, not as an asteroid. But as it approaches, it pushes asteroids ahead of it like a ship pushes water in front of it. Yes, there will be upheavals and catastrophes, but not from asteroids.”
Ovadia bases his statements on classical Jewish esoteric sources. Ovadia explained that the renowned medieval scholar Maimonides described the prophecy of Balaam in the Bible as referring to astronomical phenomena presaging the Messiah.
Ovadiah suggested that due to the many major political events, such as the COVID pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the US presidential election, and the war in Israel, the drastic increase in asteroids went unnoticed.
“Of course, everything is part of the divine plan,” Ovadia said. “But we see by what is happening in the world, by the way people are acting, that the Final Redemption is approaching. The Bible speaks about politics because it is a powerful expression of social morality. In the end, it will be clear how everything is interconnected: politics, religion, nature, war, and catastrophes. Everything is in the purview of God.”
“It is clear we are living in powerful times, fateful times,” Ovadia said. “It is becoming clear that America and Europe are not safe. And the governments are making it worse by causing division among the people. They should be bringing the people together in prayer and repentance. The safest place in the world will be here in Israel.”