A groundbreaking analysis from UK Lawyers for Israel (UKLFI) casts doubt on widely circulated reports of famine in Gaza and questions the foundation of International Criminal Court arrest warrants issued against Israel’s leadership.
UKLFI’s exhaustive examination delved into assessments from two preeminent monitoring organizations: the UN Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and the US-established Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). Their verdict? These influential reports contained critical flaws in methodology, errors in data collection, and potential biases that dramatically overstated food insecurity levels throughout Gaza.
“Despite alarming projections, there has been no famine, as defined by IPC standards, in the Gaza Strip since October 2023,” the UKLFI report declares. Their investigation suggests actual malnutrition rates were only slightly higher than pre-conflict numbers.
The UKLFI investigation uncovered several crucial problems with these famine assessments. Reports incorrectly used pre-October 2023 acute malnutrition baselines of 0.8-1% when actual figures were approximately 4%—a fundamental error that created the illusion of a tenfold increase in malnutrition. The December 2024 FEWS NET Alert significantly miscalculated North Gaza’s remaining population, leading to skewed conclusions about per-person food availability. Assessments largely overlooked private sector food supplies, which represent a substantial portion of available resources. Additionally, reports failed to account for improving conditions, including the steady increase in humanitarian aid deliveries.
UKLFI emphasizes that specific mortality thresholds must be met for a situation to officially qualify as a “famine” under international standards. For Gaza’s population of 2.3 million, this would require at least 460 non-combat-related deaths daily.
By contrast, as of March 15, 2024, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) documented just 31 total deaths from malnutrition and dehydration since October 7, 2023—dramatically below famine classification thresholds. Many of these casualties also had underlying medical conditions.
These findings have profound implications for international legal proceedings. The ICC recently issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, charging them with war crimes and crimes against humanity for allegedly using starvation as a method of warfare.
UKLFI contends these charges rest heavily on the flawed famine assessments. A July 2024 UKLFI report highlighted ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan’s reliance on “implausible reports based on incomplete information” when requesting these high-profile arrest warrants.
The UKLFI analysis acknowledges that Gaza continues to face serious humanitarian challenges requiring aid and attention. However, they conclude the evidence simply doesn’t support claims of famine as defined by international standards.
The organization urges future assessments to prioritize accuracy and objectivity to ensure international responses remain proportionate and grounded in factual realities rather than potentially exaggerated portrayals of the situation.
