As Israel welcomes home three women hostages who were held in nightmare conditions by Hamas for 471 days, the conditions of the ceasefire deal are beginning to sink in. Many Israelis and their allies are raising serious concerns about whether this “deal with the devil” has any possibility of ending well.
The ceasefire deal contains three phases, the first of which is a temporary ceasefire in which 33 hostages are to be released in a staggered fashion, with hostages in the “humanitarian” category being released first – women, children, and wounded or sick hostages.
Hamas has pledged to release 33 hostages in the 42-day first phase of the deal. Most but not all of the 33 are believed to be alive. In exchange, Israel will hand over up to 1,904 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, including several serving multiple life sentences for deadly terror attacks and murders. Four more women hostages are supposed to be released by Saturday.
The second phase, which is to be negotiated during the first phase, should end with the release of the remaining hostages and the withdrawal of IDF troops from the Gaza Strip.
Of the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas during the October 7, 2023, invasion and massacre in southern Israel, 91 are now believed to remain in Gaza, including the bodies of at least 34 confirmed dead by the IDF.
Hamas released 105 civilians during a weeklong truce in late November, and four hostages were released before that. Eight hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 40 hostages have also been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the Israeli military as they tried to escape their captors.
Finally, the third phase, negotiated during the second phase, would bring about the end of the war and the rebuilding of Gaza.
The Otzma Yehudit (Jewish power) party led by Itamar Ben Gvir broke from the coalition due to criticism of the ceasefire deal. The Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to leave the coalition, leaving the future of the government in doubt.
Even if all of the elements on the Israeli side coalesce in support of the ceasefire, it could also implode from the side of the Palestinians. The current agreement calls for the dismantling of Hamas, one of the stated goals of Israel’s war in Gaza. Hamas leaders have rejected this aspect of the ceasefire agreement. Despite Hamas’ brutal rule, the terrorist organization remains popular in Gaza and Samaria.
While it is clear that the ceasefire deal and the release of the hostages is a result of the “Trump Effect” and Hamas’ concerns that the new administration will take a hardline against terrorism, the deal falls far short of Trump’s campaign threat that there would be “all hell to pay” if Hamas did not release all of the hostages before his January 20th inauguration.
This has led to many Trump supporters expressing dismay at the incoming president. The Victory Coalition, an informal working group established in the wake of the 9/11 attacks to combat the threat of Islamist extremism, issued a briefing paper titled “Did Steve Witkoff Engineer Trump’s First Defeat Before He Even Takes Office?”
“President-elect Trump’s designated special envoy for the Middle East, Steven Witkoff, has no official portfolio just yet,” the paper began. “He seems, nonetheless, to have materially contributed to a disastrous, albeit tenuous, cease-fire accord between Israel and Hamas, the designated terrorist group that murderously attacked her on October 7th, one that the Trump administration will be stuck managing.”
“Witkoff would chain the Trump administration to the failed policies of the Biden administration,” the Victory Coalition warned.
The paper described Witkoff as achieving anti-Israel goals set out by the previous administration:
“Instead of working toward Trump’s goals, Witkoff went to work helping the Biden administration achieve its major objectives – namely, 1) assuring the survival of Hamas, 2) denying Israel a strategic victory, and 3) destroying the premiership of Benjamin Netanyahu.”
“He did so by transforming the President-elect’s laudable threat to have “all hell break loose” if Hamas did not release the hostages before he took office into a demand for Israel’s capitulation via extracting concessions that are neither in her interest nor Mr. Trump’s. And for whose consequences the Trump administration has been set up to take the fall.”
The paper concludes by recommending a course of action for the Trump administration.
“Trump’s best bet is to let Israel fight without getting his administration dragged into managing the situation in Gaza, the paper read. “Such subversive micromanagement was Team Biden’s anti-Israel agenda, and they are perilously close to embroiling Trump in it, too.”
