A new survey revealed that nine months after the October 7 massacre carried out by Palestinian Hamas in Israel, the political polarization that characterized Israeli politics before the war has returned. But on one issue, the Israeli public remains unified: opposition to a Palestinian state.
The survey, conducted by Agam Labs, a research institute led by political psychologist Nimrod Nir, polled a representative sample of 4,000 adults in August and then from Oct. 9 until May 2024 at the rate of around every ten days.
Each round of polling had a margin of error of about four percentage points. However, changes as small as two percentage points are significant if consistent over time, according to the pollsters.
A 2022 analysis by Dr. Or Anabi and the Israel Democracy Institute reported a trend to the right, showing a dramatic shift among Israeli voters, including people who voted for left-wing and center-parties.
However, the recent Agam Labs survey showed that this trend had accelerated since October 7. Based on political self-identification, the right has grown by five percentage points, including 36 percent of Jewish Israelis or 60 percent, when the poll factors in the moderate and hard right. The left has shrunk by three percentage points to just 8 percent of the public, or 13 percent, factoring in the moderate and hard left. And the center has held steady at about a quarter of the political spectrum.
Before October 7, around percent of respondents defined themselves as right-wing. By May, 60 percent were on the right.
“Oct. 7 caused a complete collapse of the old Israeli left,” Hebrew University political psychologist Nimrod Nir, who led the survey, told the Washington Free Beacon. “Until a few years ago, I could find out which political camp you were in by asking you one question: a Palestinian state, yes or no? Today, that question doesn’t really differentiate the two camps because no one supports the old idea of a Palestinian state.”
In comparison, 17 percent of Israeli Jews were left-wing in August of last year, compared to 13 percent in May of this year. Twenty-five percent of Israeli Jews identified as centrist in August, compared to around 27 percent in May.
A recent report in the Washington Free Beacon wrote that “the results correspond to more than 160,000 of Israel’s some 7 million Jews abandoning the left and more than 110,000 joining the right, according to the pollsters.”
The creation of a militarized Arab state inside Israel’s borders that has been ethnically cleansed of Jews is the sole focus of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy. Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a phone call with his Jordanian counterpart and emphasized the US commitment to a final “Two-State Solution.”
Nir suggested that Israeli opposition to the plan might be part of the reason for its failure to be implemented thus far but admitted that it is also rejected by Palestinians as well.
“There isn’t even a majority for a Palestinian state among liberal voters anymore,” Nir said. “It’s just not on the table.”
As a result, 30 percent of Jewish Israelis still support the possibility of a Two-State solution and the creation of a Palestinian state. This represents an 8-point decline since Oct. 7.
One-third of Israelis support annexing Judea and Samaria.
“This shift offers a rare opportunity for changing public positions on the conflict,” the pollsters wrote. “Israelis who previously opposed a Palestinian state on ideological grounds may support it if convinced it benefits Israel’s security and prevents future attacks like Hamas’s, or if the costs of refusing a political move are too high. However, a plan presenting a viable vision for independent Palestinian rule while maintaining Israel’s security interests is a categorical step.”
According to the Agam Labs survey, 52 percent of Jewish Israelis oppose the government’s wartime facilitation of humanitarian aid to Gaza, and just 30 percent support the policy—roughly the reverse of the numbers before Oct. 7.
